The story of the Nile waters from mutual benefit to the war threat
19 February, 2012
. Khartoum, (sudanow.info.sd)- Co-operation indispensible for resolving outstanding issues over utilization of the Nile resources. Last year, Ethiopia launched the construction of a $4.8 billion dam project on the Blue Nile River near the Sudanese border raising angry protests from downstream countries of Sudan and Egypt..
In a move described as positive in the course of developments over responses from the downstream countries, a joint tripartite technical committee set up by Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan has began in Addis Ababa on January 11, 2012 - assessing the possible impacts of the massive hydro-power dam project Ethiopia intends to build in the Blue Nile River.
However, it is not certain yet that this development would resolve the dispute over the geo-political impacts over the Nile waters by restoring the environment of cooperation among the River Nile ripariancountries or would deepen the conflict over the use of the Nile waters amid growing regional international political concerns.
The first part, of this essay reviewed the issue of the Nile waters, and will attempt to briefly draw the outlines of the contention over the dam project which caused the fears of Egypt and Sudan and their response to the Ethiopian dam project.
This second part assesses the prospects of the Best Scenario of a possible understanding between the three countries leading to resolving their contentions and bringing about an environment conducive to the good management of the Nile waters for the mutual benefit of the three countries.
As mentioned in the first part of this article, last year Ethiopia launched the construction of a $4.8 billion dam project on the Blue Nile River near the Sudanese border raising angry protests from downstream countries of Sudan and Egypt.
Ethiopian experts say the construction of the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam will not harm Egypt and Sudan who, they say, they will benefit from the electricity it generates. The dam will also regulate the water flow, controls over flooding that risks their dams.
In a move aiming at a breakthrough over the rising dispute, Ethiopia proposed the establishment of a joint tripartite technical committee set up by Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, which began its meetings in Addis Ababa on January 11, 2012 assessing the possible impacts of the massive hydro-power dam project Ethiopia intends to build in the Blue Nile River.
The technical team is to create transparency and to guarantee Sudan and Egypt that the construction of the dam will not negatively affect their water share downstream.
The aim is also to further create better understanding between the countries and allow them to engage in continued cooperation serving their interests.
The three-party committee which embraces four international professionals and six experts drawn from the three countries has held its first meeting in Addis Ababa and will have its second gathering in Sudan.
On its part Egypt initially did not recognize the agreement among other basin countries that revised the treaties.
Relations between Egypt and Ethiopia plunged after countries that share the Nile river basin demanded the revision of colonial-era agreements that allot the bulk of the river's water to Egypt and Sudan and allow Cairo to veto upstream projects.
President Hosni Mubarek who led former Egyptian régime before he was ousted in popular protests last year, had warned Ethiopia against building any dams on the Blue Nile raising diplomatic tensions. However since his down fall there is a new momentum in relationships and cooperation between Cairo and Addis Ababa as Egypt responded positively to Ethiopia proposal to negotiate the contentious issues over the dam project.
But the Nile is also crucial for Sudan; 77 percent of Sudan's fresh water comes from outside its borders, most of it via the Nile system. Ethiopia, on the other hand, because of its mountains that trap the moisture arriving by winds from the west and south is the major source of Nile water. Of the water reaching the Aswan Dam in a normal year, 86 percent originates in Ethiopia — 59 percent via the Blue Nile; 14 percent via the Baro/Akobo/Sobat; and 13 percent via the Tekeze/Atbara.
In fact Sudan maintained a compromising position on the contentious project, in an interview with Sudanow Magazine last December, the former Minister of State at the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources Dr. Salah al-Din Yusuf, former member of the Technical Advisory Committee for the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), said, "Yes, the Nile is important to Sudan. It is one of the most important surface resources, which enables the country to undertake permanent irrigation unlike the rain-fed agriculture which is affected by fluctuating rainfall."
He confirms that Sudan is affected by irrigation projects that may be established by the basin countries in the upper stream, which consumes the Nile discharge, a situation which may cause competition over the limited amount of the Nile waters.
Commenting on the Ethiopian dam project Dr. Yusuf said “But if the projects are to generate electricity, thus it would benefit Sudan as it would regulate the discharge of the river and the countries at the Nile sources would benefit energy and also the Nile waters would continue flow to Sudan which shall benefit from the regulation of the Nile discharge in the production of more energy and irrigation”.
Asserting his country non-rejection to the Ethiopian project, Dr. Yusuf said “Sudan could produce its needs of electricity, whether over the dams that are being implemented on the Nile or through thermal stations that are established or via electrical interconnection with the Nile Basin countries, so that it can provide energy demand for its population and its economy, a need that is growing from year to year which also increases with the people's need for food. But hydro-generation is usually limited, and if seemed enough today it will become a small part of the over all generation"
Dr. Salah al-Din Yusuf affirms that the Nile basin countries have the potential to achieve a positive and constructive cooperation in the utilization of the Nile. "It has been done already over the ten previous years through the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), where an unprecedented international collaboration was accomplished, but political conditions and attitudes here and there caused this rift experienced by the Nile Basin countries. Dialogue is underway to contain this situation and restore cooperation through the NBI as it has been proved that there will be no winning or success except through cooperation”.
However, he describes the outcome of NBI as fruitful, saying that “there is nothing bad in it, it is an initiative centered on human beings and one of its most important results is the good partnership and dialogue among the Nile Basin countries as it provides for trust among them after decades of estrangement and bickering”. He adds "There is a common understanding between all the officials and specialists in the countries of the basin about the NBI and everyone is very happy, and we have to agree first on resolving our differences".
While the international expert in the field of water, Dr. Salman Mohammed Ahmed referring to the sharp differences between the countries of the Nile Basin, which is aggravated every day, says it will be resolved only in good faith and cooperation among all countries of the basin. The starting point for this cooperation is the recognition of the rights of all and to depart from there to balance the standing utilization of Egypt and Sudan, and also the legitimate and reasonable needs of the other riparian states, which are limited needs and were recognized by Egypt and the Sudan themselves in the Nile Water Agreement of 1959).
These countries need to resort to full cooperation among the basin countries, and to cooperate with other countries outside the Nile Basin. The huge electrical power in Ethiopia, and the vast Sudan's agricultural territory, and Egypt's enormous industrial potentialities, and the large fish wealth of Lake Victoria all can and must be harnessed for the benefit of the peoples of the Nile Basin. But this will only be done in cooperation between all the countries of the basin. Cooperation is the essential foundation upon which the uses, management, protection and development of shared water basins is based.
High potential for cooperation
The positive attitude towards mutual benefit is further illustrated by the Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources and the former Director of the Hydraulic Research Station at Sudan the Ministry and member of the delegation of the Sudan to the Negotiating Committee of the Nile Basin, Prof. Saif-el-din Hamad Abdullah, as saying in an interview with Sudanow Magazine last month that there are very high economic and social development potentialities enjoyed by the Nile Basin, especially of the Blue Nile, which can be shared by the countries that share the basin. These capabilities can be exploited through joint cooperation between them, since the Blue Nile contributes only about 59% of the volume of the territorial waters of the River Nile, making it one of the most important existing resources for economic and social development in the region.
According to Prof. Saif-el-din, the nature of the Blue Nile basin, especially in Ethiopia, would enable these countries to establish large dams to produce electricity that will provide electrical power and cultivation of large areas in Ethiopia or Sudan.
He asserts that the proposed Ethiopian dams for hydroelectric generation on the Blue Nile in each of the Pkwabo, Mndaya, Mabel and the borders are by all standards projects of maximum benefit to Sudan and not against its development.
It seems that co-operation is indispensible for utilization of the Nile resources and the Best Scenario to resolve the outstanding issues of the water resources management for the benefit of the three countries.
An striking example of the merits of the indispensability of mutual benefit is the recently announced theEthiopia-Sudan power transmission line, which will be completed earlier this year connecting Ethiopia to Sudan’s power grids, according to the Ethiopia Electric and Power Corporation (EEPCO).
The energy link is expected to be completed by first quarter of this year and will allow power trading between the two east African neighbours.
Ethiopia plans to sell an initial 100MW of electricity to Sudan as an example of Ethiopia’s capacity to export power. The Horn of Africa country has recently begun exporting 35 MW of electricity a month to Djibouti earning up to USD$1.5 million every four weeks.
The Ethiopia-Sudan transmission project will enable Khartoum to replace its thermal power generating units with Ethiopia’s renewable and clean hydro-power generated energy.
The World Bank funded $41 million 230KV transmission line will be 296km long. The transmission line stretches between the Ethiopian towns of Bahir-Dar and Metema and connects with a transmission line in the Sudanese border town of Gedaref.
With an estimated potential of producing 45,000 MW of hydroelectricity, Ethiopia is considered among continent’s leading natural energy producers. The country has however exploited only a portion of this huge resource from its many rivers.
To cope up the ever-growing power demand and also as part of the country’s ambitious five year growth and transformation plan, Ethiopia is investing billions of dollars into build massive hydropower dams.
There is also a line being built to connect Ethiopia with Kenya.
The long-term plan of these projects is to eventually link Ethiopia’s hydro-electric power source to the rest of East Africa via Tanzania.
In October last year the Nile Basin Discourse, a civil society network within the Nile Basin region, lauded the countries for opening a new chapter in relations to settle their long-standing dispute over the Nile’s water.
to be continued
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