Khartoum, (sudanow.info.sd ) - This interview with Professor David Duchan, a South Sudanese thinker, is partly intended to highlight relationship between the parent SPLM in the Republic of South and the SPLM in the Republic of the Sudan and the presence of the 9th and 10th SPLA divisions in the Republic of Sudan.
SUDANOW: Would you brief us on the situation in South Sudan?
Duchan: The country suffers from an internal armed conflict, an imminent famine, a dictatorial regime that confiscates freedoms, lacks of democracy and the adverse consequences of secession. It also suffers from the suspension of trade with Sudan, bearing in mind that the people in the South depend on the essential commodities imported from the Sudan, rather than Uganda, which brings to the South liqueurs, narcotics and expired goods.
sudanow.info.sd: But there are parties taking part in the Government while others are on the opposition?
DUCHAN: (Irritated) where the democracy is. The freedoms are confiscated. There is restlessness in the ranks of the SPLA due to deterioration of the living conditions. There is dissension by the SPLA commanders, some of them are detained and so are some civilians. If the detainees are released, they are going to join the anti-government revolutionaries.
sudanow.info.sd: How do you view the efforts by the ruling SPLM in building a rational state?
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DUCHAN: The SPLM has established a failing state because it lacks the competence and experience required for building civil institutions. It leads the newborn state to the Somali model.
sudanow.info.sd: Why haven’t you shared power with the SPLM like other parties?
DUCHAN: True, there are parties participating in a nominal way. They are not big parties with insignificant representation. The leaders of those parties are only running after positions and personal gains, rather than the interests of the people or even their own parties.
sudanow.info.sd: The Ugandan opposition Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) poses a threat to the South, what is the strategy of the government for checking its negative impact on the stability of the country?
DUCHAN: The Government tried to solve this problem with the Ugandan Government but they failed and the LRA is presently operating in Greater Equatoria (South Sudan). The strategy of the military dealing comes from Uganda with an American support through the African forces that entered South Sudan.
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sudanow.info.sd: What is the nature of the operations of the African forces in the South?
DUCHAN: They provide logistical and technical support. As part of implementation of the US strategy in the region, about 17,000 soldiers were dispatched to Somalia. The US fights in Africa with African soldiers, instead of American, and it would not allow Russian or Chinese presence in the Continent.
sudanow.info.sd: What is the relationship between the Government of South Sudan and the Ugandan regime?
DUCHAN: It is a personal relationship resulting from the presence of President Yoweri Museveni’s son as a businessperson with oil companies operating in the South and of intimate ties with Salva Kiir. However, the bilateral relations between the two countries are strained and unstable and they only agree on their enmity to the Sudan. They said if President Omar al-Beshir flew over the Ugandan space they hand him over to the Hague international Criminal Court (ICC). The Government of the South pursues the same policy towards the Sudanese Government.
sudanow.info.sd: Is the Government of South Sudan capable of uprooting the regime in the Sudan?
DUCHAN: The South implements the American and Israeli strategy in the region, but the Sudan possesses well-established institutions and an army that excels the army of the South.
sudanow.info.sd: What are the motives of the current Israeli presence in the Republic of South?
DUCHAN: Israeli in the past did not have a chance to enter the Nile Basin region but now after the South Sudanese state came into existence, Israel has a remarkable presence. The war, starting from the present time until 2025 will not be between the Arabs and Israel but war over water as the water of the Jordanian River will not be adequate for the Arabs and Israel. The latter has the technology and strategy for bringing water from the Lakes region and will therefore have an influence on the Nile Basin countries, in general, and Egypt, in particular. This will affect the Nile Water Agreement of 1929 and, moreover, Israel concluded agreements with the Government of South Sudan, including a water deal.
sudanow.info.sd: Can Israel succeed in amending the Nile Water Agreement in a way that serves its interests?
DUCHAN: Most of the heads of state of the Nile Basin countries are of a communist background and love arms and money and Israel possesses the capability of fulfilling their demands and, in this case, Egypt will be dearly harmed.
sudanow.info.sd: What information do you have on the logistical and physical support the Government of the South offers the SPLA-N?
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DUCHAN: The SPLM has trained more than 4,000 fighters who have now arrived in Renk en route to the Blue Nile State after undergoing military training in Uganda. Malik Agar has also trained a number of Ingassana tribesmen. With those forces, we expect Agar would deal a military strike either before or after Eid al-Fitr holidays. The SPLM strategy is not to reach a peace agreement with the present Sudanese Government but, rather, they plan to topple it. For this reason, they annexed the 14 Mile area inside the South Sudanese territories although this region, according to the 01/01/1956 borderline, does not belong to the South. There are Nuer tribe people who live north of this border and we call upon the Sudanese government to grant them the Sudanese nationality like the people north of the Maban.
sudanow.info.sd: Why is the SPLM keeping Talafone Kuku in custody in the South after the secession?
DUCHAN: Kuku is much more popular than Abdul Aziz al-Hilo and if he is released, all SPLM followers from the Nuba tribe will side with Kuku, while the SPLM prefers Hilo and wants Kuku to remain in custody, although the latter is the one who can contribute to maintenance of peace and stability.
The Government of the South is violating the international law, which prohibits apprehension of the nationals of another state. Juba has to hand him over to the Government of Sudan, which is required to exercise pressure for this end, and you in the media should also play a role in this effort.
sudanow.info.sd: How do you explain Salva Kiir’s apology to US President Obama for supporting the SPLM-N?
DUCHAN: Yes, Salva Kiir lies and the US is aware of his support to the SPLM-N and Darfur rebels and offering them assistance. Salva Kiir fears Garang’s northern Communist supporters and his apology did not serve his interests because he has lost credibility. The Americans demand of Kiir to respect human rights and to refrain from arrest without charge and from extra-judiciary execution and to fight corruption. Salva Kiir’s wealth has reached millions of dollars deposited in Uganda, Australia and European countries, and Obama cannot directly lift support from Salva Kiir during the American election year but if he wins another presidential term, he will reverse his position towards the Government of the South.
sudanow.info.sd: What is the extent of the impact of the opposition action on the political and military levels?
DUCHAN: It is great; the revolutionaries have a radio station through which we have exposed the facts and extent of the corruption and SPLM ruling methods in addition to the SPLA problems, including food shortages and divisions according to tribes. The army should switch from a party army to one of the state and the secession requires changing its name, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), even since 2005.
sudanow.info.sd: Can the opposition operate from inside the South?
DUCHAN: We, the revolutionaries, maintain presence everywhere in public streets and inside the offices of the ministries and even inside Salva Kiir’s office and, moreover, we possess information about everything.
sudanow.info.sd: What is the latest information you have?
DUCHAN: It is about the movement by Agar forces towards the Blue Nile area, the split of the army (SPLA) to three commands of Salva Kiir, Riek Machar and Liang Deng who is a supporter of Garang. Salva Kiir does not have support by those hailing from Bahr al-Ghazal but only from Warrap while Machar has a big support within the army but the people do not know where he stands.
sudanow.info.sd: But there is a discord between Machar and Taban Deng and they are contesting over support within the Nuer tribe.
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DUCHAN: No, the majority is on the side of Machar, rather than Deng who only loves money and lacks leadership characteristics compared with Machar who possesses charisma and if he takes power in the South, the relations with the North will return to normal because he is of wide vision, learned and with close relations with the West.
sudanow.info.sd: Can Machar win the head of state office?
DUCHAN: Yes, because his Nuer tribesmen constitute a majority in the army, they are learned, and influential in the Government with a remarkable presence in the diaspora.
sudanow.info.sd: But the Dinka is the biggest tribe in the South?
DUCHAN: No. The Nuer tribe is bigger and learned. The Dinka people are not learned and have no knowledge of running the state while the Nuer people possess knowledge of the public work.
sudanow.info.sd: What are the prerequisites for stability in the South?
DUCHAN: Participation by all people of the South in power, provision of freedoms, respect for human rights, pursuance of a policy of good-neighbour relations, development efforts and establishment of good international relations.
End – Mohamed Osman
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